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deepmind.google·6d ago
AI Engineering
Hacker News·Jul 5·5 min read
Falling fertility on the left as key driver of US birth decline
TL;DR
A gap exists in understanding how political orientation affects fertility rates in the U.S. Using data from the General Social Survey, researchers analyzed fertility trends across 17 birth cohorts.
✦ Why It Matters
Understanding these trends can inform social policies and demographic research related to political and cultural shifts.
Key Takeaways
- Explore how political orientation influences demographic trends.
- Utilize General Social Survey data for social research.
- Consider implications of fertility trends on future ideologies.
- Analyze the role of education and religiosity in fertility.
Full Summary
Fertility rates in the U.S. have been declining, and this research investigates the correlation between political orientation and fertility. Utilizing data from the General Social Survey (GSS), which surveys American adults, the study examines completed fertility across 17 birth cohorts from 1898 to 1982.
The analysis reveals that from the 1943-1947 cohort onward, right-leaning individuals maintain fertility at or above replacement level, while left-leaning individuals experience a sharp decline. Lande–Arnold selection gradient analyses indicate increasing directional selection favoring right-wing political orientation over time.
Education negatively correlates with fertility, while religiosity has a weaker positive effect. Notably, this trend is primarily observed in White Americans, with no significant correlation for Black Americans.
These findings imply that the fertility decline in the U.S. is disproportionately driven by left-leaning individuals, potentially influencing future ideological demographics.