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AI Engineering
Hacker News·Jun 10·5 min read
Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely
TL;DR
SpaceX's projected revenue growth raises skepticism due to its ambitious forecast of $3.4 trillion by 2040, requiring a compounded annual growth rate of 41.5%. The analysis compares SpaceX's growth trajectory to that of other tech giants, revealing that larger companies face inherent growth limitations.
✦ Why It Matters
Engineers and researchers should consider size as a critical factor when evaluating growth potential in large companies.
Key Takeaways
- Consider the implications of high valuations on investment decisions.
- Analyze growth projections critically against historical data.
- Be cautious of companies with unrealistic profit margin expectations.
- Monitor insider selling patterns post-IPO for market stability.
Full Summary
SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) is the largest in history, valued at $1.77 trillion, with only 4% available to the public. The company projects rapid revenue growth from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $3.4 trillion by 2040, requiring a compounded annual growth rate of 41.5%.
This growth rate, while aggressive, is not unprecedented compared to other tech giants like Tesla. However, SpaceX's starting revenue base is significantly larger, making such growth more challenging.
Additionally, the forecast assumes a 79% EBITDA margin, which is higher than industry standards. The analysis suggests that while SpaceX's growth is ambitious, it may not be achievable given historical trends in company growth relative to size.